People tend to assume things will remain unchanged, often underestimating the possibility of major changes or crises. This mindset creates an "illusion of permanence"—a belief that the present situation will continue indefinitely. It resembles cognitive conservatism, where people maintain their existing beliefs despite contradicting evidence.
Most commonly, normalcy bias is used in the context of catastrophes, but I use it more broadly as a tendency to believe that what's here and normal will persist.
When catastrophes occur, people often refuse to believe or accept what is happening. 70% 9/11 survivors first talk to other people before escaping, when Vesuvio blew up a lot of peeps from Pompeii were just watching.
Solidified world illusion 🎨 is a related cognitive bias that applies specifically to future events
A similar dynamic is termed as cognitive conservatism – explained by Philip Tetlock as a failure to update their beliefs in response to failed predictions.