Some notes from memory

• He sees goverments as dysfunctional bureaucracies
• People in British government were unprepared to make good decisions during COVID. There was one generalist who was able because he had knowledge from both science and business
• Metaphor of Bismarck as a superintelligence model — others try to align it, but it's very hard and even dangerous for the actors. Also, after Bismarck stepped down, the First World War started; could this be the reason?

View on democracy

Demagogues on helm

People asking for handouts which is gradually bankrupting the country

Regimes change every three generations

Right now we are living in post-1945 a US inspired lock-in

Foreseeable events

People 1st half XIXc were gone who saw French revolution

2nd half XIXc — aristocrats using democracy to smash liberalism

What would they say about 1st half XXc?

Foreseeable consequences — that is NKWD and Hitler(via first)

Chaos, bloodshed and change of regimes are the norm — one can only actively work to avoid it

This depends on many things eg. the culture of the elites — Cicero said, gpt quote:

”They are such fools that they seem to expect that, though the Republic is lost, their fish-ponds will be safe”

Cicero uses the term piscinarii (fish-pond keepers) to criticize his contemporaries who, in his view, were more concerned with their personal luxuries than with the fate of the Republic.