Averaging multiple independent guesses tends to produce more accurate results than individual estimates. This applies both to groups of different people and, to a lesser extent, to multiple guesses from the same person.

Key Points

• The average of many guesses is typically more accurate than individual guesses
• Larger crowds tend to produce better results, with diminishing returns after about 10 people
• Even individual predictions can be improved by making multiple independent guesses and averaging them
• Time gap between guesses increases the independence and thus effectiveness of individual multiple guesses
• Lmitations
  • Requires independent judgments (not influenced by others' guesses)
  • Self-crowds (multiple personal guesses) are less effective than real crowds
  • May not outperform sophisticated models in specialized domains

Links

https://open.substack.com/pub/astralcodexten/p/crowds-are-wise-and-ones-a-crowd?r=1r8dq&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post