Definition
The longest period over which predictions about a situation remain reliable, after which outcomes become random. Example of different prediction horizons:
- finest meteorologists may not be able to predict what is gonna happen in a couple of hours
- We no exactly where Pluto will be in relation to other planets in solar system very far into the future
- deck of cards loses any information after 7 shuffles
- Quote from Philip Tetlock on 80000 Hours Show (two epsiodes):