Tools

Epistemics – weighing truth

• Forecasting tools / prediction markets
  • Metaculus, Polymarket, Manifold.markets, Futur, Kalshi
  • Danny Halawi using GPT for better forecasting
• Rootclaim – https://www.rootclaim.com
• Squiggle – programing language https://www.squiggle-language.com/docs/Api/Input
• Fatebook and Quantified Intuitions by https://sage-future.org
• Estimaker https://estimaker.app Katja Grace’s AI model
• Epistemic check – evaluate any claim with pros, cons, and a confidence score (my AI bot prototype)
• Parallel facts – a hypothetical and counterfactual scenario exploder, with assigned probabilities (my AI bot prototype)

Epistemics – new norms, education

• Potentially for larger audience
  • CFAR workshop
• More for expert audiences
  • Good judgment course – https://good-judgment.thinkific.com by Philip Tetlock
• Other
  • Dialectica gdoc by Jarred Filmer – tool to improve 1:1 conversation
  • Double crux bot via LessWrong – link
  • Debate devil – challenge your viewpoint
• Clio by Anthropic – https://assets.anthropic.com/m/7e1ab885d1b24176/original/Clio-Privacy-Preserving-Insights-into-Real-World-AI-Use.pdf

Coordination

• Polis – pol.is
• Talk to the city – http://talktothe.city (I work on this project)
• Cortico – https://cortico.ai opinion elicitation and analysis for small to mid-sized groups
• Remesh – gathering and analyzing group insights, startup, seems to be focused on marketing or product insights