Epistemic status: 60% sure it is inevitable… This is very similar to conclusions from Vulnerable world hypothesis. The purpose of this frame is to focus on one vector and simplify what it refers to.
Given the ever-increasing scope and impact of technology, global catastrophes are inevitable. Every system is subject to forces that strengthens it and threatens it. Even if the destabilizing forces are rare, on a long enough timelines, one of the actors will get access to a technology that has a scope and impact capable of destroying entire system and on a long-enough timelines one actor is gonna use this technology
This is dynamic exists bc it is fundamentally easier to destruct than to defend.